MANIFOLD - Modellentwicklung und Modellkopplung zu Akteursverhalten in Innovations- und Diffusionsnetzwerken

  Logo MANIFOLD Copyright: © FCN-ESE

Project duration: 10/2019 – 09/2022

Funded by: Bundesministerium für Wirtschaft und Klimaschutz (BMWK)

Funding code: 03EI1006F

Project partners:

  • Fraunhofer-Institut für System- und Innovationsforschung (ISI) (Projektkoordinator)
  • Institut für Energiewirtschaft und Rationelle Energieanwendung, Univ. Stuttgart (IER)
  • Zentrum für interdisziplinäre Risiko- und Innovationsforschung, Univ. Stuttgart (ZIRIUS)
  • Institut für Ressourceneffizienz und Energiestrategien (IREES)
  • Fraunhofer-Institut für Solare Energiesysteme (ISE)
  • Abteilung für Psychologische Methodenlehre und Biopsychologie, TU Braunschweig (IPMB)
  • Institut für qualifizierende Innovationsforschung & -beratung (IQIB)

The development of new sustainable energy technologies and their widespread diffusion are essential to achieve the necessary reduction of greenhouse gas emissions to mitigate climate change. In order to adequately model the mechanisms underlying the development and diffusion of innovations and thus develop more effective policy instruments, the socio-psychological consideration of actors, actor groups and interactions, and thus also the acceptance of actors, is of central importance. However, the representation of empirical analyses of actor behavior in (techno-economic) energy system models is often difficult in practice.

Despite their primarily techno-economic focus, the MANIFOLD project aims to enable energy system models to take better account of the results of quantitative and qualitative empirical analyses (e.g. questionnaire studies, conjoint analyses, qualitative interviews, etc.) on the behavior of actors (e.g. citizens, companies, non-governmental organizations, etc.) and, above all, to do so with less methodological effort. With regard to the system analysis, this should lead to progress in the area of model-technical questions of technology acceptance and obstacle analysis in particular, and enable a more realistic simulation and analysis of regulatory framework conditions.

  Figure 1: Schematic overview of possible interactions between models in MANIFOLD (from Senkpiel et al. (2020)) Copyright: © FCN-ESE Figure 1: Schematic overview of possible interactions of energy system model (macro perspective), transformation path model (micro perspective), technology genesis model (innovation) and socio-political acceptance model from Senkpiel et al. (2020)

In order to make overall systemic conclusion on final energy use and resulting emissions, the market share as well as the use of currently available and future technologies is crucial. In particular, the purchasing decisions and willingness to pay of private households are not purely economically motivated but depend on individual preferences. The method coupling designed by FCN-ESE and IPBM for the MANIFOLD project combines qualitative, quantitative descriptive as well as inferential statistical methods. In this way, a process is to be tested, which is to facilitate the integration of market images also of future heating technologies into energy system models.

First results on the possibilities of integrating empirical surveys and model coupling were published in Senkpiel et al. (2020) (see below).


Selected publications of project results

Journal Articles (full scholarly peer-review)

Senkpiel, C., Dobbins, A., Kockel, C., Steinbach, J., Fahl, U., Wille, F., Globisch, J., Wassermann, S., Droste-Franke, B., Hauser, W., Hofer, C., Nolting, L., Bernath, C. (2020). Integrating Methods and Empirical Findings from Social and Behavioural Sciences into Energy System Models—Motivation and Possible Approaches, Energies, 13(18), 4952. [MDPI]


Praktiknjo, Aaron © Copyright: Martin Braun


Aaron Praktiknjo

Head of Chair Energy System Economics (FCN-ESE)


+49 241 80 49691


  Supported by: BMWK